Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights
Céline Guivarch, Thomas Le Gallic, Nico Bauer, Panagiotis Fragkos, Daniel Huppmann, Marc Jaxa-Rozen, Ilkka Keppo, Elmar Kriegler, Tamás Krisztin, Giacomo Marangoni, Steve Pye, Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Massimo Tavoni, Evelina Trutnevyte, Detlef van Vuuren & Fabian Wagner
As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.
Citation: Guivarch, C., Le Gallic, T., Bauer, N. et al. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2022).