- Economy-Energy-Climate modeling (IMACLIM-R model)
- Electricity and energy sector
Actifs fossiles échoués et conséquences macroéconomiques de la transition bas-carbone
Fossil assets, which include hydrocarbon reserves and infrastructure associated with the exploitation of fossil fuels (oil wells, coal and gas power plants, etc.), face a transition risk of a dual nature. On the one hand, the climate emergency implies, in the medium term, political action to limit the extent of climate change. This would result, for example, in a global carbon price that would make the use of fossil fuels more expensive. On the other hand, the development of renewable energies has drastically reduced their cost in the last ten years, making them competitive with fossil fuels in many regions.
Today, this transition risk is not reflected in the value of fossil assets. However, the financial (stock market) and accounting value of fossil assets should include the possibility of a future exit from fossil fuels. The subject of this thesis is the evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of the loss of economic value of hydrocarbon assets. The aim is to quantify the direct economic losses as well as the macroeconomic and financial effects induced by the devaluation of fossil assets in different scenarios, varying for example the pace of technical progress of renewable energies. This evaluation will be carried out within the framework of the IMACLIM-R model, developed by CIRED and particularly adapted to the study of energy system transformations.