- Integrated assessment models
Désagrégation sectorielle des prospectives produites par les modèles à évaluation intégrée et application : propagation des risques mondiaux de transition énergétique à travers les réseaux de production
PhD supervisors: Frédéric Ghersi (CIRED), Antoine Godin (AFD)
The thesis project focuses on the development and implementation of a multi-regional and multi-sectoral structural change model (SCM) designed as an extension to the integrated assessment models (IAM) that produce energy transition scenarios.
The SCM will take the form of a computable general equilibrium model reflecting, by default, the state of the art of academic research on structural change induced, at different levels of economic development, by the combination of technical changes and evolutions in the sectoral composition of final demand and international trade. However, the specifications retained will have to be able to adapt to represent exogenous hypotheses coming from the MRIs to which the SAM will be coupled, supposedly more relevant because they are built on methods that complement the economist’s point of view from that of the engineer.
The implementation of the SCM will concern the assessment of the propagation of energy transition risks along international production networks, with the aim of providing more accurate estimates of the regional and sectoral impacts of a global energy transition. It will be done by coupling with the KLEM and IMACLIM models of CIRED. However, the SCM will be developed in a generic way that allows its association with any integrated assessment model, including those of CIRED’s international partners.