Local rice supply in West Africa: Analyzing risks and constraints affecting production and their impact on rice farmers’ food security
The objective of this thesis is to analyze the production and market risks associated with an increase in rice production in West Africa and to assess their impact on the welfare and on the food security of rice producing households. This objective is met by using agronomic and economic approaches: (i) statistical analysis of rice yield variability, (ii) modeling of rice yields while considering climatic risks, and (iii) modeling of cultivation strategies of rice farmers facing production and market risks. Our results show that rice self-sufficiency may not be effective in achieving food security in West Africa, as production can vary considerably with climatic conditions. Moreover, improvements in rice production are strongly hampered by risks, particularly climatic, and constraints related to the availability of production factors.