Analysis of the links between extreme events, populations and impacts
Extreme weather events can impact different sectors of human activity, at different scales. For example, hot and cold temperature extremes, and wet and dry precipitation extremes can affect agricultural yields or trigger hazardous conditions for vulnerable populations. Cyclones and storms can damage infrastructure and cause casualties through extreme rainfall, wind and sea surges. Understanding the characteristics of weather-related impacts is essential to prepare for hazardous hazards.
In this context, the analysis of physical observables, such as maximum daily temperature, wind speed, or precipitation, allows quantifying the severity of extreme hazards from a meteorological perspective. Numerous studies have proposed precise definitions of these different extreme phenomena, and have carried out statistical and physical analysis for both the historical period and for different climate change scenarios.
However, meteorological extremes do not always translate into extreme impacts, and the events with high impacts are not necessarily the most extreme from a meteorological point of view either. While there is obviously a link, the relationships between the two are complex, and may involve a multidimensional and non-linear combination of factors leading to extreme impacts. These factors are not only related to the physics of climate, but also involve the vulnerability of economic and social systems. Thus, it is important to analyze the impacts associated with weather-related extreme events and the conditions that promote them. The objective of this thesis is to construct, at the global level and for different types of events, indicators that allow linking the impacts of extreme events to their meteorological conditions, taking into account demographic and socio-economic criteria.