The Network’s modelling activity on Brazil rests upon long lasting ties between CIRED and COPPE at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. At the turn of 2010, the two institutions decided to jointly develop an IMACLIM model of Brazil that could run coupled to the MESSAGE bottom-up model operated by COPPE. Initial model development occurred in the course of two PhDs, one in each institution (Wills, 2013; Lefèvre, 2016). A third PhD thesis was recently defended at COPPE (Grottera, 2018).
The resulting IMACLIM-BR turns out to be a platform of several model versions with up to 19 productive sectors (including 6 energy sectors) and 6 household income groups. Some versions compute a single-time step projection (Lefèvre, 2016) while others are recursive dynamic architectures with several time steps (Wills, 2018). All versions are calibrated on a ‘hybrid’ database of year 2005 combining national accounting and energy balance data.
IMACLIM-BR was used by COPPE to contribute to the building of Brazil’s INDC prior to COP21 (La Rovere et al, 2016) as well as to the DDPP (La Rovere et al, 2015).
IMACLIM-BR is currently being used by COPPE in the PMR Brazil project (Partnership for Market Readiness), which provides support to prepare and implement climate change mitigation policies—including carbon pricing instruments—in order to scale up GHG mitigation. The project is financed by the World bank and the Ministry of Finance is the focal point in Brazil.
Grottera, C. (2018). The role of lifestyle changes in low-emissions development strategies – The case of Brazil. PhD Thesis, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 257 p.
La Rovere, E. L., Gesteira, C., Grottera, C., Wills, W (2015). Pathways to deep decarbonization in Brazil. Project report, 44 p.
La Rovere, E. L., Wills, W., Pereira Jr, A. O., Dubeux, C. B. S, Cunha, S. H. F., Oliveira, B. C. P., Moreira, M. M. R., Watanabe, S., Loureiro, S. M., Moreira, L. S. S. C., Grottera, C., Harfuch, L., Weiss, M., Santos, L. A. S., Carvalho, P.T., Kishinami, R., Zveibil, V., Santos, L., Kimura, W., Santos, T., Toni, A., Bachion, L. C., Lima, R., Zambianco, W., Nassar, A., Walter, M. K. C, Marcondes, S., Ely, R. N., Lefevre, J., Oliveira, L. D. B., e Zicarelli, I. (2016) Implicações Econômicas e Sociais de Cenários de Mitigação de Gases de Efeito Estufa no Brasil até 2030. Projeto IES-Brasil, Forum Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas, COPPE/UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro. Webpage
Lefèvre, J. (2016). Hybridization challenges in energy-economy integrated models and representation of the low carbon transition. An application to the Brazilian case. PhD Thesis, Agro Paristech, 416 p.
Lefèvre, J., Wills, W., Hourcade, J.-C (2018). Combining low-carbon economic development and oil exploration in Brazil? An energy–economy assessment. Climate Policy, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2018.1431198.
Wills, W. (2013). Modelling long-term effects of greenhouse gases mitigation policies in the Brazilian economy. PhD Thesis, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 222 p.
Wills, W. (2018). Implicações Econômicas e Sociais de Cenários de Emissão de Gases de Efeito Estufa no Brasil até 2050. In Rovere, E. L.L.; Wills, W.; Dubeux, C. B. S; Pereira Jr, A. O.; D’Agosto, M. A; Walter, M. K. C; Grottera, C.; Castro, G.; Schmitz, D.; Hebeda, O.; Loureiro, S. M.; Oberling, D; Gesteira, C.; Goes, G.V.; Zicarelli, I.F.; e Oliveira, T.J.P (2018). Implicações Econômicas e Sociais dos Cenários de Mitigação de GEE no Brasil até 2050: Projeto IES-Brasil, Cenário1.5 ° C. COPPE / UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, 2018.