09/11 Lesly Cassin (CIRED, CES)

Abstract

In the public debate, as well as in the economic literature, migration is now considered as an adaptation strategy to reduce populations’ exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Climate damages are traditionally computed by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Yet demographic dynamics and especially migration are hardly included in commonly used IAMs. Our aim in this paper is to fill this gap. To do so, we first examine the socio-economic determinants of migration that might be impacted by climate change. Second, we account for those determinants in an IAM model, which allows us to quantify migration induced by climate change, and to assess the impact of the damage distribution across regions on migration flows. We find that when developing regions are disproportionately harmed by climate change, climate change induces significant migrations, while climate induced migration remains small when damages are homogeneous across regions.