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  • Kondratieff Waves in a Long-term Growth Model with Endogenous Technical Change

    Abstract
    This article presents a long-term growth model featuring both embodied and non-embodied endogenous technical change. It focuses on economic transitions between sectors characterized by their technology. The model reproduces Kondratieff waves qualitatively matching observations, and can exhibit lock-in phenomena. It suggests (i) that the difference in inertia of investment and labor supply can lead to reduced growth rates and to recessions in the case of over-optimistic (...)

  • The Long Time Scales of the Climate-Economy Feedback and the Climatic Cost of Growth

    Abstract
    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 (...)

  • Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: illustration on extreme events

    Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socio-economic systems interact, and it is likely that climate change will modify the probability distribution of the losses they generate. The long-term growth models used in climate change assessments, however, cannot capture the effects of such short-term shocks. To investigate this issue, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events. This exercise allowed (...)

  • Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages

    Abstract
    This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a "pure preference for current climate regime" and full cost-benefit analysis. The choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. It is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an (...)

  • Using Climate Analogues for Assessing Climate Change Economic Impacts in Urban Areas

    This paper aims at proposing a way to get round the intrinsic deadlocks of the economic assessment of climate change impacts (absence of credible counterfactuals and of fully-fletched description of adaptation behaviours under uncertainty).
    First, we use the climate scenarios of 2 models of the PRUDENCE project (HadRM3H and ARPEGE) to search for cities whose present climates can be considered as reasonable analogues of the future climates of 17 European cities. These analogues meet rather (...)

  • Accounting for Extreme Events in the Economic Assessment of Climate Change

    Full paper
    FEEM WORKING PAPER N° 01.05

  • Interactions d’échelles en économie : Application à l’évaluation des dommages économiques du changement climatique et des événements extrêmes

    Un résumé des principaux résultats de ma thèse est disponible ici.

  • Is there any link between climate change, hurricane destructiveness and economic damages?

  • A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the New Orleans Flood Protection System

    S. Hallegatte. AEI-Brookings Joint Center. Regulatory Analysis 06-02. Mar 2006
    In the early stages of rebuilding New Orleans, a decision has to be made on the level of flood protection the city should implement. Such decisions are usually based on cost-benefit analyses. But in such an analysis, the results are contingent on a number of underlying assumptions and varying these assumptions can lead to different recommendations. Indeed, though a standard first-order analysis rules out category (...)

  • Demand Surge and Worker Migrations in Disaster Aftermaths: Application to Florida in 2004 and 2005

    Abstract
    This article provides an analysis of how reconstruction costs increased in the aftermath of the 2004 and 2005 Florida hurricanes, disasters that made demand become much larger than production capacity in the construction sector. Data on 14 Floridian cities was used to analyze the historical changes in reconstruction costs and to quantify the rapid increase in repair costs above the expected level of costs should no catastrophic events have occurred. This analysis shows that the (...)

  • Adaptation to Climate Change: Do Not Count on Climate Scientists to Do Your Work

  • Flood Risk in New Orleans : Implications for Future Management and Insurability

    Risk Management Solutions (with S. Hallegatte), “Flood Risk in New Orleans : Implications for Future Management and Insurability”, Dec. 2006

  • Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic using Generalized Additive and Linear Models

    Fluctuations of the annual number of tropical cyclones over the North-Atlantic and of the energy dissipated by the most intense hurricane of a season are related to a variety of predictors (global temperature, SST and detrended SST, NAO, SOI) using generalized additive and linear models. Our study demonstrates that SST and SOI are predictors of interest. The SST is found to influence positively the annual number of tropical cyclones and the intensity of the most intense hurricanes. The use (...)

  • The Long Time Scales of the Climate-Economy Feedback and the Climatic Cost of Growth

    Abstract
    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 (...)

  • A Proposal for a New Prescriptive Discounting Scheme: The Intergenerational Discount Rate

    Abstract:
    Cost-benefit analyses require comparing costs and benefits that occur at different points in time. Doing so, however, creates conflicts between short-term considerations - a discounting scheme has to be consistent with observed behaviours - and long-term ethical issues - a discounting scheme must not favour the current generation over future ones. To overcome this conflict, the present article proposes a prescriptive consumption discounting scheme that applies different discount (...)

  • A Proposal for a New Prescriptive Discounting Scheme: The Intergenerational Discount Rate

    Abstract:
    Cost-benefit analyses require comparing costs and benefits that occur at different points in time. Doing so, however, creates conflicts between short-term considerations - a discounting scheme has to be consistent with observed behaviours - and long-term ethical issues - a discounting scheme must not favour the current generation over future ones. To overcome this conflict, the present article proposes a prescriptive consumption discounting scheme that applies different discount (...)

  • Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Risk in Port Cities: A Case Study on Copenhagen

    (1) Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement.
    (2) Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo France, Paris, France.
    (3) Risk Management Solutions Limited, London, UK.
    (4) Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development, Paris, France.
    KEY MESSAGES
    1/ Copenhagen, thanks to its location, is not highly vulnerable to storm surges and coastal floods. Man-made defences, however, are necessary: without them, the economic losses caused by the current 10 (...)

  • The Economics of Climate Change Impacts and Policy Benefits at City Scale: A Conceptual Framework

    (1) Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement
    (2) Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo-France
    (3) Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
    Abstract:
    Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes because they concentrate many activities, people and wealth in limited areas. As a result they represent an interesting scale for assessment and understanding of climate change impacts as well as for policy assessment. (...)

  • Climate Change Economic Damages: Influence of Inertia Heterogeneity and Ripple Effects in a Two-Sector Model

    Abstract
    This paper shows that assessing the economic costs of climate change requires to take into account (i) the specificities of infrastructures, namely a large exposure to climate and a long lifetime that makes it difficult to adapt them to a climate which is changing and uncertain, and (ii) the large reliance of the whole economy on key infrastructures. To do so, this paper proposes a two-sector model in which the first sector represents the production of infrastructure and housing (...)

  • Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change

    Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change Global Environmental Change Volume 19, Issue 2, May 2009, Pages 240-247 Special Issue: Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change
    Abstract Many decisions concerning long-lived investments already need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make (...)

  • A Proposal for an Adaptation-Development Fund Based on Ex-Post Macro Indicators

    Summary
    Climate change will require significant investments in the adaptation of economies and infrastructure. To be operational, however, it is useful distinguish between adaptation per se (e.g., upgrading of existing infrastructure) and adaptation deficit reduction (e.g., construction of new infrastructure needed to cope with climate variability and change). Obviously, poorer regions and communities need to focus first on adaptation deficit, while relatively richer locations need to focus (...)

  • L’économie de l’adaptation au changement climatique - Rapport pour le Conseil Economique pour le Développement Durable (CEDD)

    Rapport complet
    Résumé
    L’adaptation au changement climatique est restée pendant longtemps le parent pauvre du débat sur le changement climatique et encore plus des politiques climatiques mises en œuvre. Mais la diffusion de l’information sur le changement climatique conduit de nombreux acteurs à s’interroger sur ce qu’ils pourraient faire pour en limiter les conséquences. On assiste ainsi à l’éclosion d’une multitude d’initiatives sur (...)

  • The economics of natural disasters

    This article proposes a definition of the cost of a disaster, and emphasizes the most important mechanisms that explain this cost. It does so by first explaining why the direct economic cost, i.e. the value of what has been damaged or destroyed by the disaster, is not a good indicator of disaster seriousness and why estimating indirect losses is crucial. Then, it describes the main indirect consequences of a disaster and of the following reconstruction phase, and discusses the methodologies (...)

  • Publications de l’équipe adaptation

    2010
    L’économie de l’adaptation au changement climatique, par Christian de Perthuis, Stéphane Hallegatte et Franck Lecocq, Rapport du conseil économique pour le développement durable, 2010.
    2009
    Hallegatte, S., 2009. Challenges ahead: risk management and cost-benefit analysis in a climate change context, in “The Economic Impact of Natural Disaster”, D. Guha-Sapir, A. Borde, I. Santos (Eds.), EarthScan, in press
    Dumas, P., S. Hallegatte, 2009: Climate Change (...)

  • Actualités de l’équipe Adaptation

    Conférences
    Paris, le 19 octobre 2010 : Les grandes agglomérations et l’adaptation au changement climatique, vulnérabilité et robustesse des territoires
    Dans la presse
    Risques côtiers : les digues oui, mais pas seulement
    S. Hallegatte, Mediapart, 8 Mars 2010 : L’épuisement d’un monde fini - La crise financière et la crise environnementale ont les mêmes causes
    Réchauffement : il faut recommencer par le (...)

  • Les grandes agglomérations et l’adaptation au changement climatique, vulnérabilité et robustesse des territoires

    Conférence organisée dans le cadre des 3e journées parisiennes de l’énergie et du climat, avec : la Mairie de Paris, CDC Climat Recherche et le Cired.
    Voir le programme complet de la conférence ici
    Vous pouvez d’ores et déjà vous inscrire en envoyant un mail à : jpec@paris.fr

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