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Kondratieff Waves in a Long-term Growth Model with Endogenous Technical Change

S. Hallegatte

Abstract

This article presents a long-term growth model featuring both embodied and non-embodied endogenous technical change. It focuses on economic transitions between sectors characterized by their technology. The model reproduces Kondratieff waves qualitatively matching observations, and can exhibit lock-in phenomena. It suggests (i) that the difference in inertia of investment and labor supply can lead to reduced growth rates and to recessions in the case of over-optimistic anticipations ; (ii) that expansions are partially linked to economic properties, whereas recessions are only dependent on technological properties, accounting for the difficulty of long-term cycle identification in historical data ; (iii) that the absence of a parallel shift in physical investment and labor supply may explain the lack of economic convergence and the formation of clubs.

Mots-clés

Adaptation


Article - 907.6 ko