Recent publications

Energy Security Scenarios of Future Europe. An evaluation of upscaling pioneer experiences in a low carbon context

Christophe Cassen, Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, Giancarlo Cotella, Jacopo Toniolo, Patrizia Lombardi, et al. Sustainability, MDPI, 2018, 10 (3), 848


Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions

Hélène Benveniste, Olivier Boucher1, Céline Guivarch2, Hervé Le Treut1,3 and Patrick Criqui4
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Number 1

Interconnected place-based social–ecological research can inform global sustainability

A. Vallet, et al.

La transition énergétique est-elle favorable aux branches à fort contenu en emploi ? Une analyse input-output pour la France

Quentin Perrier, Philippe Quirion

Spatialities of the energy transition: Intensive sites making earth matter?

O. Labussière, A. Nadaï

A Survey of Global Climate Justice: From Negotiation Stances to Moral Stakes and Back

Antonin Pottier, Aurélie Méjean, Olivier Godard and Jean-Charles Hourcade


Climate Damage on Production or on Growth: What Impact on the Social Cost of Carbon?

Céline Guivarch, Antonin Pottier

Energy consumption and activity patterns: An analysis extended to total time and energy use for French households

Simona de Lauretis, Frédéric Ghersi, Jean-Michel Cayla

Aligning domestic policies with international coordination in a post-Paris global climate regime: A case for China

Jun Li, Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, Christophe Cassen

Landscape commons, following wind power fault lines. The case of Seine-et-Marne (France)

Alain Nadaï et Olivier Labussière


Fiscalité carbone et finance climat: un contrat social pour notre temps

Jean-Charles Hourcade et Emmanuel Combet

Fiscalité carbone-couve 1C

The Routledge Research Companion to Energy Geographies

Edited by Stefan Bouzarovski, Martin J Pasqualetti, Vanesa Castán Broto

Chapter 20: Exhaustible-renewable wind power – Alain Nadaï and Olivier Labussière


Carbon price variations in 2°C scenarios explored

Céline Guivarch, Joeri Rogeljb


Are subsidies to weather-index insurance the best use of public funds ? A bio-economic farm model applied to the Senegalese groundnut basin

Aymeric Ricome, François Affholder, Françoise Gérard, Bertrand Muller, Charlotte Poeydebat, Philippe Quirion, Moussa Sall


Solving the clinker dilemma with hybrid output-based allocation

Frédéric Branger, Misato Sato, Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1884-x

Branger Sato hybrid 2017-1


Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

G. Marangoni, M. Tavoni, V. Bosetti, E. Borgonovo, P. Capros, O. Fricko, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, C. Guivarch, P. Havlik, D. Huppmann, N. Johnson, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, E. Ó Broin, J. Price & D. P. van Vuuren, Nature Climate Change (2017), doi:10.1038/nclimate3199


Aménagement et environnement, Perspectives historiques

Patrick Fournier et Geneviève Massard-Guilbaud (dir.)


Ce livre propose une vision nouvelle des aménagements territoriaux. Pensant les territoires comme des champs de négociation entre des forces variées, il inclut dans l’étude de leur aménagement la façon dont l’environnement réagit à son tour à la transformation imposée. Considérant des travaux effectués à toutes les périodes de l’histoire, il cherche à identifier leur impact économique, social, environnemental ou même culturel, y compris sur le long terme.

Avec le soutien du RUCHE et du R2DS.


Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future : Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment Eleven

by Janet Ranganathan, Daniel Vennard, Richard Waite, Brian Lipinski, Tim Searchinger, Patrice Dumas, Agneta Forslund, Hervé Guyomard, Stéphane Manceron, Elodie Marajo-Petitzon, Chantal Le Mouël, Petr Havlik, Mario Herrero, Xin Zhang, Stefan Wirsenius, Fabien Ramos, Xiaoyuan Yan, Michael Phillips and Rattanawan Mungkung – April 2016


Abstract: Installment 11 of Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that for people who consume high amounts of meat and dairy, shifting to diets with a greater share of plant-based foods could significantly reduce agriculture’s pressure on the environment. It introduces a protein scorecard ranking foods from lowest (plant-based foods) to highest impact (beef), as well as the Shift Wheel, which harnesses proven marketing and behavior change strategies to help move billions of people to more sustainable diets.


The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

Bengang Li, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Shilong Piao, Shu Tao, Yves Balkanski, Didier Hauglustaine, Juan-Pablo Boisier, Zhuo Chen, Mengtian Huang, Laurent Zhaoxin Li, Yue Li, Hongyan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Shushi Peng, Zehao Shen, Zhenzhong Sun, Rong Wang, Tao Wang, Guodong Yin, Yi Yin, Hui Zeng, Zhenzhong Zeng & Feng Zhou

Nature 531, 357–361 (17 March 2016) doi:10.1038/nature17165




Abstract: Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development1, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols2, 3, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry–climate model4, 5 and a chemistry and transport model6 to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ?± ?4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ?± ?2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ?± ?6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ?± ?0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ?± ?0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, ?0.11 ?± ?0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ?± ?0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years : a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.


Moving the trillions : a debate on positive pricing of mitigation actions

Jean-Charles Hourcade, Alfredo Sirkis, Dipak Dasgupta, Rogério Studart, Kevin Gallagher, Baptiste Perrissin-Fabert, José Eli da Veiga, Etienne Espagne, Michele Stua, Michel Aglietta



“Finance has to play a much bigger role if large-scale and faster de-carbonization is to occur. The scale of climate investments needed is simply too large a transformation that can be achieved by the two tools currently in play : slow, protracted climate negotiations, limited public monies and hesitant carbon pricing. There is no shortage of savings to finance the needed investments, nor a paucity of technologies. Private investors are waiting for the announcement of some bold public policy frameworks to mitigate private risks and uncertainty.” Dipak Dasgupta

“Our challenge is to figure out how the drive towards low-carbon economies can be scaled into an unstoppable movement. We need this if we are ever to get onto the under 2 degree pathway, leading to a future carbon-neutral scenario where humanity is able to prevent at least catastrophic levels of climate change and, in doing so, also move the global economy past its current stagnation mode.” Alfredo Sirkis

“The low-carbon transition is actually an opportunity to increase the propensity to invest by indicating where savings should go. It shows why reducing the uncertainty attached to low-carbon investments requires targeted financial devices. The paper then suggests that recognizing the social value of mitigation activities can be the cornerstone of a financial intermediation that bridges long-term assets and short-term cash balances.” Jean Charles Hourcade


Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration

Céline Guivarch, Robert Lempert, Neil Strachan, Evelina Trutnevyte

Climatic Change, essai, pp 1-7



Abstract: Abstract Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis. However, in the great majority of studies with a handful of scenarios or scenario categories, both scenario developers and users capture only a subset of future uncertainties. We propose three focal points for reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration: (1) to ensure that scenario developers embrace an increased space of multidimensional uncertainties, (2) to facilitate the process of scenario users capturing this space, and (3) to evaluate and iteratively revise the improvement progress. If these focal points are adopted, scenario studies in climate and energy analysis shall not simply stop after producing scenarios, but shall continue with techniques to facilitate elicitation of user-specific insights, as well as evaluation of both scenarios and scenario techniques.


Managing nitrogen for sustainable development

Xin Zhang, Eric A. Davidson, Denise L. Mauzerall, D. de Timothy Searchinger, Patrice Dumas & Ye Shen

Nature 528, 51 – 59 (3 décembre 2015) doi:10.1038 / nature15743




Abstract: Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them.


Climate policy architecture for the Cancun paradigm shift: building on the lessons from history

Jean-Charles Hourcade, P.-R. Shukla, Christophe Cassen


Abstract: The economics of climate policy after Rio led to a climate centric paradigm which departs from the original UNFCCC’s cooperative framework for designing climate policies from the perspective of sustainable development. This resulted in a cap-and-trade approach which aims to mitigate the adverse effects on development through appropriate transfers to achieve fair burden sharing. However, the continuation of this paradigm cannot untie the development-climate Gordian knot. (The Gordian Knot refers to a seemingly intractable problem. According to a Greek legend, Gordios arrived in Phrygia in an ox cart, was made King and dedicated his cart to Zeus, tying it up with an intricate knot. The person who would untie the knot would rule Asia. Alexander the Great found a solution by cutting it with his sword. Hourcade et al. (The design of climate policy. MIT Press, Cambridge, p 408, 2008) explain that, after Rio Earth Summit (1992), the climate negotiations remained disengaged from the debates on development pathways, thus tying up a new Gordian knot of misunderstandings.) Instead one loses sight of the benefits of cooperation in a global agreement to abate GHGs emissions. The challenge is now to align the development and climate objectives taking into consideration the changing context since the 1990s which includes a re-equilibrium of the world economic balance and the adverse context created by the 2008 financial crisis. This paper proposes that carbon finance should be considered as part of a general reform of the financial system. The adoption of a carbon value as a notional price could trigger a wave of low-carbon investments in the world thereby redirecting some global savings towards low-carbon investments, thus providing a lever for equitable access to development.

Liste des publications du CIRED